ESTIMAÇÃO DE EQUAÇÕES DE IMPORTAÇÃO E EXPORTAÇÃO DE PRODUTOS AGROPECUÁRIOS PARA O BRASIL (1977/1998)

Abstract

The objective of this paper is the estimation of econometric models (considering long-run and short-run relationships) for Brazilian quarterly imports and exports for the agricultural sector. For the exports, the period considered goes from 1977 to 1998. For the imports, the estimation period begins in 1978, due to the availability of the historical series. The cointegration vectors were estimated in a single -equation framework, considering a regression including autoregressive distributed lags. For the exports, the weak exogeneity could be tested using initially Johansen’s procedure. For the imports, the weak exogeneity of the explanatory variables was assumed in advance, in part supported by the hypothesis that Brazil is a small importer. According to the estimations, the imports of agricultural products are highly dependent on the real exchange rate and on the rate of utilization of the installed domestic capacity. Concerning this second variable, the positive sign for the long-run elasticity indicates the pro-cyclical behavior of the imports of this sector. The Brazilian exports for these products are affected basically by the world activity and, in a smaller proportion, by the real exchange rate.