COMPLEXITY ECONOMIC DETERMINANTS IN NATURAL RESOURCE-BASED ECONOMIES: AN ANALYSIS WITH BRAZILIAN STATES DATA
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.61673/ren.2026.2697Keywords:
Determinants, Economic complexity, Natural resources, Cointegration panelAbstract
This paper analyzes the potentially determinant factors of the long run productive sophistication process in economies that export primary and natural resource-based goods. Thus, it investigates the effects of a natural resources export basket based (share, concentration and exported value), human capital, infrastructure, investment, productive diversification, income and trade opening on economic complexity. The methodology consists of estimating a Pooled Mean Group (PMG) cointegration panel for the sample composed of the 27 Brazilian federative units with annual data from 2002 to 2017. The results suggest that an export basket significantly concentrated in natural resources, as well as a strong productive direction that intensifies the dependence on natural resources, can hinder productive sophistication and exert unfavorable effects on a beneficial transition that makes an economy more diversified and not ubiquitous in the long run.
Downloads
References
ALENCAR, J. F. L. et al. Complexidade econômica e desenvolvimento: uma análise do caso latinoamericano. Novos Estudos CEBRAP, São Paulo, v. 37, n. 2, p. 247-271, 2018.
ANDRÉS, L; BILLER, D; DAPPE, M. Infrastructure gap in South Asia: infrastructure needs, prioritization, and financing. Policy Research Working Paper 7032, Washington: D.C.: World Bank, sep. 2014.
CAMARGO, J.; GALA, P. The resource curse reloaded: revisiting the Dutch disease with economic complexity analysis. Working Paper 448, São Paulo: Fundação Getúlio Vargas, mar. 2017.
CARVALHO, D. E. et al. Complexidade econômica e crescimento do PIB per capita: uma análise de diferenças em diferenças para os municípios brasileiros. In: 50° ENCONTRO NACIONAL DE ECONOMIA. Anais... Fortaleza, dez. 2022.
DATAVIVA. [s. l.], 2022. Complexidade Econômica. Disponível em: http://dataviva.info/pt/rankings/. Acesso em: 25 set. 2023.
DING, X.; HADZI-VASKOV, M. Composition of Trade in Latin America and the Caribbean. Working Paper WP/17/42, International Monetary Fund, mar. 2017.
ENGLE, R. F.; GRANGER, C. W. J. Co-Integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing. Econometrica, v. 55, n. 2, p. 251-276, 1987.
ERKAN, B.; YILDIRIMCI, E. Economic complexity and export competitiveness: the case of Turkey. Procedia Social and Behavioral Sciences, Elsevier: v. 195, n. 3, p. 524-533, jul. 2015.
ERKAN, B; CEYLAN, F. Determinants of Economic Complexity in Transitional Economies. Journal Transition Studies Review, v. 28, n. 2, p. 57-80, 2021.
FAGGIAN, A.; MODREGO, F.; MCCANN, P. Human capital and regional development. In: CAPELLO, R.; NIJKAMP, P. Handbook of Regional Growth and Development Theories, p. 149-171, 2019.
GALA, P.; ROCHA, I.; MAGACHO, G. The structuralist revenge: economic complexity as an important dimension to evaluate growth and development. Brazilian Journal of Political Economy, São Paulo, v. 38, n. 2, p. 219-236, 2018.
HARTMANN, D. et al. A. Linking economic complexity, institutions, and income inequality. World Development, v. 93, p. 75-93, 2017.
HAUSMANN, R.; HWANG, J.; RODRIK, D. What you export matters. Journal of Economic Growth, v. 12, n. 1, p. 1 -25, 2007.
HAUSMANN, R.; HIDALGO, C. Country diversification, product ubiquity, and economic divergence. HKS Faculty Research Working Paper Series RWP10-045, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, 2010.
HIDALGO, C. A. Economic complexity theory and applications. Nature Reviews Physics, v. 3, n. 2, p. 92-113, 2021.
HIDALGO, C. A.; HAUSMANN, R. The Building Blocks of Economic Complexity. PNAS, Cambridge, v. 106, n. 26, p.10.570-10.575, jun. 2009. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0900943106.
HIDALGO, C. A. et al. The Product Space Conditions the Development of Nations. Science, v. 317, p. 482–487, 2007.
IM, K. S.; PESARAN M. H.; SHIN, Y. Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels. Journal of Econometrics, v. 115, n. 1, p. 53-74, jul. 2003. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-4076(03)00092-7.
LALL, S. The technological structure and performance of developing country manufactured exports, 1985-1998. QEH Working Paper Series 44, 2000.
LARA-RODRÍGUEZ, J.; FURTADO, A. T.; ALTIMIRAS-MARTIN, A. Materias primas críticas y complejidad económica en América Latina. Apuntes del Cenes, Colômbia, v. 37, n. 65, p. 15-51, 2018.
LEVIN A.; LIN C.; CHU C. J. Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties. Journal of Econometrics, v. 108, n. 1, p. 1-24, 2002.
LYUBIMOV, I. L.; OSPANOVA, A. G. How to make an economy more complex? The determinants of complexity in historical perspective. Voprosy Economiki, v. 2, 2019. DOI:10.32609/0042-8736-2019-2-36-53.
MDIC - Ministério do Desenvolvimento, Indústria, Comércio Exterior e Serviços. COMEXSTAT. versão 2.0, 2023. Consultas de exportação e importação. Disponível em: http://comexstat.mdic.gov.br/pt/geral. Acesso em: 25 set. 2023.
OEC - Observatory of Economic Complexity. Rankings, 2022.
ORSOLIN TEIXEIRA, F.; JOSÉ MISSIO, F.; DATHEIN, R. Economic complexity, structural transformation and economic growth in a regional context: Evidence for Brazil. PSL Quarterly Review, v. 75, n. 300, 2022.
PEDRONI, P. Critical values for cointegration tests in heterogeneous panels with multiple regressors. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, v. 61, n. 1, p. 653-670, 1999.
PEDRONI, P. Fully modified OLS for heterogeneous cointegrated panels and the case of purchasing power parity. Manuscript, Department of Economics, Indiana University, v. 5, p. 1-45, 1996
PESARAN, M. H. A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence. Journal Applied Econometrics, v. 22, p. 265-312, 2007.
PESARAN, M. H.; SHIN, Y. An Autoregressive Distributed-Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration Analysis. In: STROM, S. (ed.). Econometrics and Economic Theory in the 20th Century, Cambridge, p. 371-413, 1999.
PESARAN, M. H.; SHIN, Y.; SMITH, R. P. Pooled mean group estimation of dynamic heterogeneous panels. Journal of the American Statistical Association, v. 94, n. 446, p. 621-634, 1999. DOI:10.2307/2670182.
SALLES, F. C. et al. A armadilha da baixa complexidade em Minas Gerais: o desafio da sofisticação econômica em um estado exportador de commodities. Revista Brasileira de Inovação, Campinas, v. 17, p. 33-62, 2018.
THE GROWTH LAB AT HARVARD UNIVERSITY. Atlas of Economic Complexity. 2022. Disponível em: http://www.atlas.cid.harvard.edu. Acesso em: 10 mai. 2023.
TUROLLA, F. A.; OHIRA, T. H. A economia do saneamento básico. Ciclo de debates EITT, do grupo de estudos em economia industrial, trabalho e tecnologia do programa de estudos pós-graduados em economia política da PUCSP, São Paulo, v. 3, 2005.
YALTA, A. Y.; YALTA, T. Determinants of economic complexity in MENA Countries. JOEEP: Journal of Emerging Economies and Policy, v. 6, n. 1, p. 5-16, 2021.
ZHU, S. et al. What drives the export sophistication of countries. Journal of World Economic, v. 4, p. 28-43, 2010.
ZHU, S; LI, R. Economic complexity, human capital and economic growth: empirical research based on cross country panel data. Journal Applied Economics, v. 49, n. 38, p. 3815-3828, 2017.
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2026 Rafael Moraes de Sousa, Michele Polline Veríssimo
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
