Behavior of the brazilian trade balance with emphasis on agribusiness: analysis from 2000 to 2023 and estimates until 2028

Abstract

Agribusiness is one of the central pillars of the Brazilian economy, playing a fundamental role in generating foreign exchange, creating jobs, and maintaining the trade balance. Brazil stands out as one of the world’s leading exporters of agricultural products, including soybeans, beef, chicken, coffee, and corn. This study aims to project the share of agribusiness in Brazilian exports over the next five years, using the ARIMA model to forecast future trends based on historical time series data. The analysis revealed a significant increase in Brazil’s total exports, driven by the appreciation of commodities and growing global demand. Between 2000 and 2023, agribusiness exports showed an increasing share, with a strong correlation among total exports, imports, and agribusiness exports. The interdependence among these variables proved relevant to the maintenance of the trade surplus. The forecasts indicate continued growth in Brazilian exports, particularly in agribusiness, reflecting changes in economic policies and greater national self-sufficiency. The ARIMA model proved effective, providing a solid quantitative basis for the projections, validating observed trends, and indicating prospects for sustained sectoral growth.