EMISSÕES DE CARBONO, CONSUMO DE ENERGIA DESAGREGADO E CRESCIMENTO ECONÔMICO NO BRASIL: UMA ANÁLISE DE CAUSALIDADE
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.61673/ren.2026.1724Palavras-chave:
emissões de carbono, consumo de energia, crescimento econômico, séries temporais.Resumo
Este estudo investiga as relações de curto e longo prazo entre emissões de carbono, consumo de energia desagregado e crescimento econômico no Brasil entre 1980 e 2019, usando um modelo Vetorial de Correção de Erros (VEC). Os resultados revelam a presença de forte cointegração entre as variáveis econômicas. A análise de causalidade de longo prazo mostra uma relação de feedback entre as emissões de carbono e o consumo de energia, incluindo eletricidade, biocombustíveis e gás natural, enquanto uma relação unidirecional é observada com o consumo de carvão. Além disso, foi identificado um processo bidirecional entre emissões de carbono, consumo de petróleo e crescimento econômico. As elasticidades de longo prazo indicam que o crescimento econômico e o consumo de eletricidade, petróleo e carvão aumentam as emissões de carbono, enquanto o uso de gás natural e biocombustíveis as reduz. Tomados em conjunto, esses resultados apoiam políticas que incentivam o uso de fontes de energia renováveis e menos poluentes, como biocombustíveis e gás natural, juntamente com maiores investimentos em tecnologia e infraestrutura para manter um fornecimento de energia sustentável e reduzir as emissões de carbono sem comprometer o crescimento econômico.
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