GLOBAL DETERMINANTS OF THE BRAZILIAN SUPPLY OF VEGETABLE WAX: AN ANALYSIS OF EXPORTS FROM 1997 TO 2022

Abstract

This study aims to estimate the export supply function of Brazilian vegetable wax, based on annual time-series data from 1997 to 2022. As the world’s largest producer of vegetable wax, Brazil has faced fluctuations in exports, particularly during global economic crises, such as the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. The analysis focuses on the relationships between export value, international wax price, exchange rate, and global per capita GDP, with proxy for global income. This research seeks to understand how these external variables, especially global income and the exchange rate, influence Brazil's export performance over time. Results indicate that, in the short term, exports respond to economic growth in importing countries, while in the long term, the exchange rate plays a more dominant role. The export price has a positive effect, though it contributes relatively less to export variations. The findings suggest that world income and exchange rates are key determinants of the export supply of Brazilian vegetable wax, especially over longer horizons. This study aligns international trade literature, highlighting the importance of exchange rate competitiveness and global economic growth in the demand for primary goods.