CAFÉ

v. 11, n. 446, agosto, 2026

Abstract

Conab projects a record coffee harvest in Brazil in 2026, ranging from 65.1 to 66.7 million bags, nearly 18% higher than the previous crop year, further consolidating the country’s position as the world’s leading coffee producer and exporter. This expansion is driven by the positive biennial production cycle of Arabica coffee, the incorporation of new production areas, increased adoption of technological innovations, and more favorable climatic conditions. In Northeastern Brazil, Bahia leads regional production, supported by a coffee sector that is partially irrigated, mechanized, and highly productive, while Ceará and Pernambuco continue to expand their presence in specialty coffee market segments. The main concern is climate-related: the intensification of El Niño may induce water stress, increase production costs, and cause yield losses of up to 20% in rainfed coffee plantations, with potential repercussions for the 2026/27 crop. This scenario heightens credit risk, particularly among smallholder farmers with limited financial capacity, within a context marked by agricultural delinquency rates close to 7.3%, contraction in private-sector financing, reduced resources allocated to rural insurance programs, and a growing number of judicial reorganization proceedings. Climate insurance, water resource management, price hedging strategies, and region-specific analyses are becoming critical factors for sustaining the sector’s activity and resilience.