DAIRY PRODUCTS

v. 10, n. 396, Julho, 2025

Abstract

In the first half of 2025, milk production in the Brazilian Northeast increased 10.36%, but the trade deficit grew 52.80%, export volume fell 12.54%, and imports increased 51.99%, compared to the same period in 2024. In Brazil, milk production increased 3.35%, but export revenue fell 14.53% (US$45.85 million), increasing the deficit by 9.05%. The first half of the year saw a better balance between supply and demand, good margins for producers, and production gains. However, the second half of the year could be more challenging, marked by high inflation impacting consumption, in addition to geopolitical instability and the US tariff hike. On the other hand, the bumper grain harvest, coupled with reduced production costs and the US dollar protectionist policy, could reduce imports, improving the competitiveness of domestic dairy products. However, in the Northeast, margin growth still faces many challenges: high production costs, low milk prices paid to producers, and high unmet demand, keeping imports high. The region continues to specialize, expanding production and productivity, with growth expected.