CAFÉ

v. 10, n. 403, setembro, 2025

Abstract

Brazil is the world's largest producer and exporter of coffee. In the 2024/25 harvest season, the country accounted for 37% of global production and 28% of international trade. For 2025, Brazilian coffee output is expected to grow slightly, driven by Conilon. Arabica, however, is facing challenges due to its negative biennial cycle and adverse weather conditions, which are projected to result in an 11% crop failure. This reduced supply may negatively impact exports in 2025. In BNB’s area of operation, coffee production is concentrated in the states of Espírito Santo, Bahia, and Minas Gerais. Forecasts indicate overall growth in coffee output in this region, thanks to the strong performance of Conilon, which is expected to offset the decline in Arabica production. As for the market outlook, several factors are likely to support coffee prices: low global stock levels, limited Brazilian supply, uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policy, the depreciation of the dollar against the real, and the potential occurrence of the La Niña climate phenomenon.